A0 - Farmers’ intentions of transforming farmland (by 2025) - in a BAU scenario

 

 A – Artificial surfaces; B – Non-irrigated arable land; C – Permanently irrigated land; D – Permanent crops; E – Pastures; F – Heterogeneous agricultural; G – Forest; H – Water bodies

 

 

A1 - Farmers intention of transforming farmland in a context of demand for agricultural production (2025)

Increase for agriculture products; increase in European funds.

 

  A – Artificial surfaces; B – Non-irrigated arable land; C – Permanently irrigated land; D – Permanent crops; E – Pastures; F – Heterogeneous agricultural; G – Forest; H – Water bodies

 

 

A2 - Farmers intention of transforming farmland in a context of decrease in agricultural production (2025)

Low agriculture productivity; decrease in European funds.

 

  A – Artificial surfaces; B – Non-irrigated arable land; C – Permanently irrigated land; D – Permanent crops; E – Pastures; F – Heterogeneous agricultural; G – Forest; H – Water bodies

 

 

A3 - Farmers intention of transforming farmland in a context of increasing urban growth (2025)

Increase of built-up areas with a decreasing demand for agricultural land; increase of income and economic growth; significant reduction in protected areas.

 

  A – Artificial surfaces; B – Non-irrigated arable land; C – Permanently irrigated land; D – Permanent crops; E – Pastures; F – Heterogeneous agricultural; G – Forest; H – Water bodies

 

 

Brief Note

We develop an ABM that simulates farmers’ behaviors/ intentions with respect to the decision of changing the agricultural land use of their property.

 

We built four explorative scenarios describing different dynamics in land use changes for the time horizon of 2025. These scenarios allow us to understand different situations that may occur in land use changes context. 

 

The scenarios consist in four different future images of the territory, and will provide decision support in spatial planning, as they allow to anticipate the strengths and weakness for each scenario.

 

Territory

Torres Vedras municipality was selected as case study.  Torres Vedras is a municipality located 50 km from Lisbon at 39º05`25.74 N, 9º15`37.70 W, in the west central Portugal, and is included in the geographical area of the metropolitan region of Lisbon. This municipality is in a peri-urban area with a total population of 80 000 inhabitants and a total area of roughly 407 km²

 

AgriMet Model

The AgriMet Model, created by AgriMet team, was built on the NetLogo software, one of the most widely used applications in modelling natural and social phenomena in complex systems with temporal dynamics. This model allows a better approach to issues in decision support in planning at a municipal level.

 

This model has the command “Load file” that allows the user to import land use (time 0) in ASCI format (raster data).

 

Scenarios “A0”, “A1”, “A2” and “A3” were generated integrating the transitions probabilities obtained through the farmers’ interviews. These probabilities and rules transitions were introduced into Logo language.

 

The output information of AgriMet Model show the % assigned for each land use class and for each scenario: in time 0 (land use older) to time 1 (land use projected).

 

The model has a command reset-landuse that allows the user to return to starting point.

 

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